Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 88

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New England Patriots 10

(:59) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to NE 45, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.60 EP
63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 88, worth -4.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model