Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 89

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:38) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 59 yards to NE 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-D.Amendola to DAL 45 for 25 yards (91-L.Ladouceur; 51-K.Wilber).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.16 EP
64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 89, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model