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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 54

Dallas Cowboys 6 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(7:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-B.Weeden scrambles right end to NE 46 for 8 yards (32-D.McCourty).

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.45 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model