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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 31

New England Patriots 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(8:24) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.38 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model