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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 33

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(1:52) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.03 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP