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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 75

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 4-J.Berry punts 56 yards to LAC 19, Center-60-G.Warren. 12-J.Jones to LAC 19 for no gain (29-S.Thomas). PENALTY on LAC-24-B.Flowers, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at LAC 19. Penalty on LAC-24-B.Flowers, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.92 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model