Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to LAC: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.102 vs Michael Vick (PIT) -0.528 EPA/dropback
- PIT offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- LAC offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- LAC defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- PIT on 3 more days rest than LAC
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
PIT
SD
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:55 TD LAC (9:55) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – SD 6
- Q2 04:28 FG PIT (4:28) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – SD 7
- Q3 03:36 TD PIT (3:36) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle intended for 80-M.Floyd INTERCEPTED by 41-A.Blake at PIT 30. 41-A.Blake for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – SD 7
- Q4 14:53 FG LAC (14:53) 2-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. PIT 10 – SD 10
- Q4 08:07 TD LAC (8:07) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 10 – SD 16
- Q4 07:55 TD PIT (7:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Vick pass deep left to 11-M.Wheaton for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-J.Attaochu]. Penalty on LAC-24-B.Flowers, Defensive Holding, declined. PIT 16 – SD 17
- Q4 03:01 FG LAC (3:01) 2-J.Lambo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. PIT 17 – SD 20
- Q4 00:05 TD PIT (:05) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-L.Bell. 26-L.Bell left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. PIT 23 – SD 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EPp(convert) 61% p(FG) 28%
(12:16) 4-J.Berry punts 31 yards to LAC 16, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 12-J.Jones.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(6:39) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to LAC 24, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 12-J.Jones.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:59) 5-M.Scifres punts 54 yards to PIT 20, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-A.Brown to PIT 23 for 3 yards (43-B.Oliver). PENALTY on PIT-41-A.Blake, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 23.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 43%
(:13) 4-J.Berry punts 30 yards to LAC 11, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 12-J.Jones. PENALTY on PIT-29-S.Thomas, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 11.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(13:36) 5-M.Scifres punts 52 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-A.Brown to PIT 21 for 6 yards (48-N.Dzubnar, 53-K.Conner).
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Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(12:01) 4-J.Berry punts 56 yards to LAC 19, Center-60-G.Warren. 12-J.Jones to LAC 19 for no gain (29-S.Thomas). PENALTY on LAC-24-B.Flowers, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at LAC 19. Penalty on LAC-24-B.Flowers, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 82Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EPp(convert) 63%
(10:16) 5-M.Scifres punts 58 yards to PIT 24, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 34 for 10 yards (89-L.Green). PENALTY on PIT-30-J.Todman, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 34.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 11 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 74%
(4:28) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(2:47) 5-M.Scifres punts 55 yards to PIT 30, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 36 for 6 yards (48-N.Dzubnar). PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 36.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 43%
(1:33) 4-J.Berry punts 34 yards to LAC 7, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 12-J.Jones.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 42Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 41%
(:07) 2-J.Lambo 60 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 41%
(11:06) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to LAC 4, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-35-R.Ventrone.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 12 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(9:00) 5-M.Scifres punts 48 yards to PIT 40, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-A.Brown to PIT 42 for 2 yards (53-K.Conner).
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Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(7:14) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to LAC 5, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-35-R.Ventrone.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 86%
(14:53) 2-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(14:06) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to LAC 35, Center-60-G.Warren. 12-J.Jones to LAC 40 for 5 yards (45-R.Nix).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 36 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 57%
(3:01) 2-J.Lambo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.