4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 82

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 5-M.Scifres punts 58 yards to PIT 24, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 34 for 10 yards (89-L.Green). PENALTY on PIT-30-J.Todman, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 34.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.27 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP