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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 4-J.Berry punts 31 yards to LAC 16, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 12-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.76 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -3.12 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP