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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 4-J.Berry punts 34 yards to LAC 7, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 12-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP