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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 42

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(:07) 2-J.Lambo 60 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.68 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model