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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 88

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 5-M.Scifres punts 48 yards to PIT 40, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-A.Brown to PIT 42 for 2 yards (53-K.Conner).

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.02 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model