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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to LAC 35, Center-60-G.Warren. 12-J.Jones to LAC 40 for 5 yards (45-R.Nix).

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.54 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model