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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 36

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 2-J.Lambo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model