Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 5-M.Scifres punts 54 yards to PIT 20, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-A.Brown to PIT 23 for 3 yards (43-B.Oliver). PENALTY on PIT-41-A.Blake, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.16 EP
61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model