4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(:13) 4-J.Berry punts 30 yards to LAC 11, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 12-J.Jones. PENALTY on PIT-29-S.Thomas, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 11.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.40 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP