4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 5-M.Scifres punts 52 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-A.Brown to PIT 21 for 6 yards (48-N.Dzubnar, 53-K.Conner).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.27 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model