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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to SEA 2, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-21-D.Dennard.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.86 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 51, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model