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HC Pete Carroll
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2015-10-11 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

SEA
23.0%
CIN
77.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.442 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) -0.025 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: +0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 21
–
CIN 30
Projected margin: CIN by 9 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

SEA

Marcus Burley CB Out Hand
Tharold Simon CB Out Toe
Marshawn Lynch RB Out Hamstring
Demarcus Dobbs DE Doubtful Shoulder
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Doubtful Hamstring
Tye Smith CB Doubtful Hip
Fred Jackson RB Questionable Ankle
Ricardo Lockette WR Probable Shortness of Breath
Brandon Mebane DT Probable Groin
Steven Terrell S Probable Hip

CIN

Wallace Gilberry DE Questionable Calf
George Iloka S Questionable Ankle
Jeremy Hill RB Probable Knee
Adam Jones CB Probable Groin
Reggie Nelson S Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 24
–
CIN 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:06 TD CIN (11:06) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 85-T.Eifert for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – CIN 6
  • Q1 06:39 TD SEA (6:39) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 15-J.Kearse for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – CIN 7
  • Q2 00:02 FG SEA (:02) 4-S.Hauschka 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 10 – CIN 7
  • Q3 08:51 TD SEA (8:51) 34-T.Rawls right tackle for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – CIN 7
  • Q3 06:47 TD SEA (6:47) 33-R.Burkhead right end to CIN 22 for -3 yards (72-M.Bennett). FUMBLES (72-M.Bennett), RECOVERED by SEA-54-B.Wagner at CIN 23. 54-B.Wagner for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – CIN 7
  • Q4 12:23 TD CIN (12:23) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 85-T.Eifert for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 24 – CIN 13
  • Q4 03:41 TD CIN (3:41) 14-A.Dalton up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 24 – CIN 20
  • Q4 00:03 FG CIN (:03) 2-M.Nugent 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. SEA 24 – CIN 24
  • Q5 03:42 FG CIN (3:42) 2-M.Nugent 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. SEA 24 – CIN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:05) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to SEA 25, Center-46-C.Harris. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 37 for 12 yards (47-P.Dawson).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 41%

    (1:54) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Gresham, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 19 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 25%

    (12:49) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to SEA 2, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-21-D.Dennard.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:14) 9-J.Ryan punts 62 yards to CIN 22, Center-49-C.Gresham. 19-B.Tate pushed ob at CIN 32 for 10 yards (83-R.Lockette).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:59) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to SEA 31, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 15 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 32%

    (5:33) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to SEA 2, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-21-D.Dennard.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:14) 9-J.Ryan punts 56 yards to CIN 31, Center-49-C.Gresham. 24-A.Jones to CIN 46 for 15 yards (46-W.Tukuafu). PENALTY on CIN-47-P.Dawson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 43. Jones creditied with a 12 yard return.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 14 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:25) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to SEA 20, Center-46-C.Harris. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 16 for -4 yards (81-T.Kroft).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:12) 9-J.Ryan punts 46 yards to CIN 32, Center-49-C.Gresham. 24-A.Jones to SEA 33 for 35 yards (9-J.Ryan).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (9:39) 9-J.Ryan punts 50 yards to CIN 12, Center-49-C.Gresham. 19-B.Tate to CIN 29 for 17 yards (33-K.McCray).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (2:30) 9-J.Ryan punts 51 yards to CIN 23, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 24-A.Jones. PENALTY on CIN-24-A.Jones, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 23.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%

    (:03) 2-M.Nugent 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.