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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 84

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 9-J.Ryan punts 62 yards to CIN 22, Center-49-C.Gresham. 19-B.Tate pushed ob at CIN 32 for 10 yards (83-R.Lockette).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 84, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 42, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model