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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 48

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to SEA 2, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-21-D.Dennard.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.80 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model