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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 13

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(:03) 2-M.Nugent 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +1.95 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 13, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model