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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to SEA 25, Center-46-C.Harris. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 37 for 12 yards (47-P.Dawson).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.08 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model