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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 44

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Gresham, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.95 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP