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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 9 at the 24
Atlanta Falcons 0 – Washington Commanders 7
What Actually Happened
(7:12) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
The Three Options
GO
+0.88 EP
-
32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.05 EP
- 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -1.11 EP
KICK
+1.43 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
- 14% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT
-0.37 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
