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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2015-10-11 · 13:00 Georgia Dome, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

WAS
34.7%
ATL
65.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.168 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.281 vs Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.133 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • WAS defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 22
–
ATL 28
Projected margin: ATL by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

WAS

Chris Culliver CB Out Knee
DeAngelo Hall CB Out Toe
DeSean Jackson WR Out Hamstring
Jordan Reed TE Out Concussion
Perry Riley LB Questionable Calf
Pierre Garcon WR Probable Knee
Kedric Golston DE Probable Hand
Ryan Kerrigan LB Probable Hip
Josh LeRibeus C Probable Calf
Kory Lichtensteiger C Probable Finger
Spencer Long G Probable Ankle
Trent Murphy LB Probable Hip

ATL

Justin Durant LB Out Elbow
Julio Jones WR Questionable Toe
Ricardo Allen S Probable Knee
Tevin Coleman RB Probable Ribs
Leonard Hankerson WR Probable Thumb
Jacob Tamme TE Probable Concussion
Roddy White WR Probable Not Injury Related
Brooks Reed LB Probable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 19
–
ATL 25

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:18 TD WAS (12:18) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 89-D.Carrier for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – ATL 0
  • Q2 07:12 FG ATL (7:12) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. WAS 7 – ATL 3
  • Q3 01:58 FG ATL (1:58) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. WAS 7 – ATL 6
  • Q4 09:21 TD ATL (9:21) (Shotgun) 24-D.Freeman left tackle to WAS 1 for 2 yards (92-C.Baker). FUMBLES (92-C.Baker), recovered by ATL-11-J.Jones at WAS 0. TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – ATL 12
  • Q4 08:05 TD WAS (8:05) 68-T.Compton reported in as eligible. 31-M.Jones right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – ATL 12
  • Q4 02:42 FG WAS (2:42) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 16 – ATL 12
  • Q4 00:30 TD ATL (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-D.Freeman right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – ATL 18
  • Q4 00:05 FG WAS (:05) 3-D.Hopkins 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 19 – ATL 19
  • Q5 12:26 TD ATL (12:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 14-R.Grant INTERCEPTED by 23-R.Alford at ATL 41. 23-R.Alford for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 19 – ATL 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (12:54) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to ATL 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:40) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to ATL 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-47-Q.Dunbar.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:11) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to WAS 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 33 for 10 yards (42-P.DiMarco).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 96%

    (13:33) 8-K.Cousins right guard to ATL 9 for 1 yard (44-V.Beasley).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%

    (7:12) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:51) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to ATL 32, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-E.Weems to ATL 40 for 8 yards (94-P.Smith). PENALTY on WAS-22-D.Everett, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 40.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 90%

    (:05) 3-M.Bryant 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 57%

    (12:48) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman to WAS 32 for 7 yards (51-W.Compton).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 77%

    (11:18) 3-M.Bryant 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 13 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 66%

    (6:46) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 54%

    (4:40) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to WAS 31 for 9 yards (94-P.Smith).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (1:58) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:59) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to ATL 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-E.Weems to ATL 19 for 6 yards (57-N.Sundberg). PENALTY on ATL-37-R.Allen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 19.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (2:42) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 95%

    (:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 84-R.White to WAS 6 for 7 yards (52-K.Robinson; 26-B.Breeland).