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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 72

Washington Commanders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to ATL 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.03 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 30, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP