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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 20

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(:05) 3-M.Bryant 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.80 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 20, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model