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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 39

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(12:48) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman to WAS 32 for 7 yards (51-W.Compton).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.77 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -2.04 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model