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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 30

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 3-M.Bryant 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.64 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model