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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 35

Washington Commanders 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.53 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model