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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 70

Washington Commanders 7 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(:59) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to ATL 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-E.Weems to ATL 19 for 6 yards (57-N.Sundberg). PENALTY on ATL-37-R.Allen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.02 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model