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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 10

Washington Commanders 13 – Atlanta Falcons 12

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.31 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 10, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model