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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 13

Atlanta Falcons 12 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 84-R.White to WAS 6 for 7 yards (52-K.Robinson; 26-B.Breeland).

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.11 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 13, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model