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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 10

Washington Commanders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 8-K.Cousins right guard to ATL 9 for 1 yard (44-V.Beasley).

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.22 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 10, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model