Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 34 – Buffalo Bills 21

(3:12) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to BUF 4, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.90 EP
58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -2.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model