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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
Sunday 2015-10-18 · 13:00 Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

CIN
61.0%
BUF
39.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: EJ Manuel (BUF) -0.128 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.357 EPA/dropback (BUF starting EJ Manuel in place of Tyrod Taylor)
  • CIN offense: +0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 24
–
BUF 23
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CIN

Leon Hall CB Questionable Back
Adam Jones CB Probable Groin
Marvin Jones WR Probable Foot
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Probable Hip
Andre Smith T Probable Elbow
Brandon Tate WR Probable Illness
Kevin Zeitler G Probable Elbow

BUF

Marcus Easley WR Out Shoulder
Karlos Williams RB Out Concussion
Cierre Wood RB Out Knee
Percy Harvin WR Questionable Hip
Tyrod Taylor QB Questionable Knee
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Calf
Ron Brooks CB Probable Thumb
Cyrus Kouandjio T Probable Knee
Bacarri Rambo S Probable Quadricep
Charles Clay TE Probable Calf
Marcell Dareus DT Probable Hip
Cordy Glenn T Probable Ankle
Chris Hogan WR Probable Hamstring
Randell Johnson LB Probable Hand
LeSean McCoy RB Probable Hamstring
John Miller G Probable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 34
–
BUF 21

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:24 TD BUF (9:24) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: A.Dixon. CIN 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 03:35 TD CIN (3:35) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 32-J.Hill for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 13, near sideline. CIN 6 – BUF 7
  • Q2 10:24 TD CIN (10:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard right guard for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – BUF 7
  • Q2 07:17 FG CIN (7:17) 2-M.Nugent 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 17 – BUF 7
  • Q2 00:26 TD BUF (:26) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF-14-S.Watkins was injured during the play. He is Out. Caught 5 yds. into end zone, crossing to middle. S.Watkins assisted off. CIN 17 – BUF 13
  • Q3 11:01 TD CIN (11:01) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 82-M.Jones for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Screen pass, caught at BUF 11, slanting to middle. CIN 23 – BUF 14
  • Q3 01:45 TD CIN (1:45) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 85-T.Eifert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone. CIN 30 – BUF 14
  • Q4 10:45 FG CIN (10:45) 2-M.Nugent 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 34 – BUF 14
  • Q4 06:52 TD BUF (6:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 34 – BUF 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 40%

    (7:52) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to BUF 11, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-D.Moore.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:22) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to CIN 30, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 24-A.Jones to CIN 36 for 6 yards (33-R.Brooks). PENALTY on BUF-33-R.Brooks, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 36.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:58) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to CIN 31, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 24-A.Jones to CIN 49 for 18 yards (91-M.Lawson; 36-J.Meeks). PENALTY on BUF-88-M.Goodwin, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CIN 49.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 77%

    (7:17) 2-M.Nugent 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:34) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to CIN 14, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 24-A.Jones to CIN 22 for 8 yards (65-G.Sanborn).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:01) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to CIN 29, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-B.Tate to CIN 34 for 5 yards (91-M.Lawson).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 88%

    (10:45) 2-M.Nugent 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:12) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to BUF 4, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-D.Moore.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass deep right to 15-C.Hogan to CIN 44 for 23 yards (20-R.Nelson, 51-C.Carter). Caught near sideline at 50.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 20 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (:46) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass incomplete deep right to 10-R.Woods [95-W.Gilberry]. Overthrown, receiver along sideline at CIN 27.