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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 34

What Actually Happened

(1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass deep right to 15-C.Hogan to CIN 44 for 23 yards (20-R.Nelson, 51-C.Carter). Caught near sideline at 50.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.82 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -1.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model