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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 44

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to BUF 11, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.85 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP