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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 82

Buffalo Bills 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to CIN 30, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 24-A.Jones to CIN 36 for 6 yards (33-R.Brooks). PENALTY on BUF-33-R.Brooks, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 36.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.97 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 40, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model