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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(9:12) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 34 yards to DEN 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.29 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model