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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Mike Pettine
Sunday 2015-10-18 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 💨 Windy Spread -3.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

DEN
39.9%
CLE
60.1%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to CLE: Josh McCown (CLE) +0.222 vs Peyton Manning (DEN) -0.073 EPA/dropback
  • CLE defense: +0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.198 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Wind 20 mph

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22
–
CLE 24
Projected margin: CLE by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

DEN

DeMarcus Ware LB Out Back
Ty Sambrailo T Out Shoulder
Evan Mathis G Questionable Hamstring
Juwan Thompson RB Questionable Hamstring
Aqib Talib CB Questionable Ankle
Demaryius Thomas WR Questionable Neck
Kenny Anunike DE Probable Knee
Omar Bolden CB Probable Foot
Owen Daniels TE Probable Not Injury Related
Bennie Fowler WR Probable Hamstring
Ryan Harris T Probable Knee
Cody Latimer WR Probable Groin
Peyton Manning QB Probable Not Injury Related
Louis Vasquez G Probable Not Injury Related

CLE

Tashaun Gipson S Out Ankle
Joe Haden CB Out Concussion
Craig Robertson LB Out Ankle
Marlon Moore WR Questionable Hamstring
Shaun Draughn RB Questionable Back
Desmond Bryant DE Questionable Shoulder
Isaiah Crowell RB Questionable Toe
Karlos Dansby LB Questionable Ankle
Robert Turbin RB Questionable Ankle
Brian Hartline WR Probable Thigh
Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow
Mitchell Schwartz T Probable Thumb
Josh McCown QB Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 26
–
CLE 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:53 FG DEN (2:53) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 3 – CLE 0
  • Q2 14:19 TD DEN (14:19) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short right intended for 11-T.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Talib at DEN 37. 21-A.Talib for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – CLE 0
  • Q3 11:12 TD CLE (11:12) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short right to 82-G.Barnidge for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – CLE 6
  • Q3 02:08 FG DEN (2:08) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 13 – CLE 7
  • Q4 13:36 FG DEN (13:36) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 16 – CLE 7
  • Q4 09:20 TD CLE (9:20) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short middle to 82-G.Barnidge for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – CLE 13
  • Q4 08:18 TD CLE (8:18) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left intended for 23-R.Hillman INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Dansby at DEN 35. 56-K.Dansby for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Ball tipped by Denver # 23 (Hillman) The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. DEN 16 – CLE 20
  • Q4 08:02 TD DEN (8:02) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 10-E.Sanders for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 22 – CLE 20
  • Q4 01:32 FG CLE (1:32) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. DEN 23 – CLE 23
  • Q5 04:57 FG DEN (4:57) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 26 – CLE 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 61%

    (10:15) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass incomplete short middle to 82-G.Barnidge (43-T.Ward).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 44%

    (6:26) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 88-D.Thomas to CLE 31 for 7 yards (22-T.Williams).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (2:53) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 19 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (9:12) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 34 yards to DEN 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:11) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 34 for 4 yards (51-T.Davis).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:11) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 50 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-30-I.Campbell.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:46) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-T.Benjamin ran ob at CLE 40 for 10 yards.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 20%

    (3:29) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 28 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 58%

    (:22) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (9:21) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin. PENALTY on DEN-16-B.Fowler, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 20.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:57) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:46) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 48 for 20 yards (30-D.Bruton).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 97%

    (2:08) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:48) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 58 yards to DEN 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 28 for 11 yards (33-J.Poyer). DEN-52-C.Nelson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 85%

    (13:36) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:22) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 46 yards to DEN 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 30 for 8 yards (35-D.Jones). DEN-52-C.Nelson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:58) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 35 yards to CLE 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (1:32) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:13) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to CLE 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:11) 4-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.