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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(7:11) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 50 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-30-I.Campbell.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.52 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 23, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model