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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 80

Denver Broncos 10 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(5:46) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-T.Benjamin ran ob at CLE 40 for 10 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.73 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model