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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 33

Denver Broncos 10 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.76 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model