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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 68

Denver Broncos 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(9:21) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin. PENALTY on DEN-16-B.Fowler, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.47 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP