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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 7

Denver Broncos 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(2:08) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.81 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 7, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP