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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 32

Cleveland Browns 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:15) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass incomplete short middle to 82-G.Barnidge (43-T.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.50 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model