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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 21

Denver Broncos 13 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(13:36) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.70 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP