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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 75

Denver Broncos 23 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(4:58) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 35 yards to CLE 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model